29 June 2024
Pricewatch | 12 Apr 2023 | Gas Matters Today
Publication date: 12 April 2023
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[1] The European gas market managed to win back the losses seen before the Easter weekend on Tuesday as supply uncertainties mount.
The weather forecasts predict milder weather, but the bearish signals have been offset by supply issues. Gas flows from Norway are to be reduced in the coming months due to maintenance work, and LNG imports continue to be limited by the ongoing strike action at terminals in France.
The UK’s NBP price saw a 0.7% rise to USD 12.74/MMBtu, while the Dutch TTF benchmark rose by 1.9% to USD 13.96/MMBtu.
In the US, Henry Hub has seemingly stopped to take a breather on Tuesday, with the price rising by only 0.6% to USD 2.19/MMBtu.
According to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) updated projections in its latest Short-Term Energy outlook (STEO), Henry Hub prices averaged USD 2.65/MMBtu in the first quarter with “spring-like” temperatures reducing demand. However, prices are poised to rise later this year as summer cooling demand kicks in and as production volumes remain relatively flat.
The EIA forecasts Henry Hub to average slightly more than USD 3.00/MMBtu in Q3’23.
It added: “We expect relatively flat US natural gas production, rising demand for feed gas from Freeport LNG as the export terminal returns to full operations and increased natural gas consumption in the electric power sector to raise natural gas prices through the summer.”
In crude, Brent rose 1.7% to USD 85.71/barrel and WTI increased 2.2% to USD 81.53/barrel. This was led by hopes that the Federal Reserve might ease up on its policy tightening after a key US inflation report this week, though concerns remain over Chinese demand, Reuters reported.
Front-month futures and indexes at last close with day-on-day changes (click to enlarge): [2] Time references based on London GMT. Brent, WTI, NBP, TTF and EU CO2 data from ICE. Henry Hub, JKM and API2 data from CME. Prices in USD/MMBtu based on exchange rates at last market close. All monetary values rounded to nearest whole cent/penny. Text and graphic copyright © Gas Strategies, all rights.